With another month of Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and most altcoins in the red or in a range-bound trajectory, all eyes are hoping for greener price charts for the top cryptocurrencies in the last quarter.
“Wake me up when September is over,” has been the prevailing sentiment for most crypto HODLers over the past month. As macro conditions continued to dictate the short-term path for cryptocurrencies, bearish sentiment dominated the larger market.
Over the course of September, bearish sentiment became much more heated, as seen in the red bars below, which represent the number of sell, sell, sell or bear mentions.
Reduced demand
The total fees spent on using the blockchain represent the willingness to spend and the demand to use it. In the most recent quarter, Bitcoin fees from the network generated just under $30 million, down from $42.9 million in Q2 2022.
Ethereum fees, on the other hand, fell even further, from $1.29 billion in Q2 to $264 million in Q3, representing a 79% quarter-on-quarter (quarter-on-quarter) decline.
Additionally, the net flows indicated that while BTC saw neutral sentiment, ETH saw more bullish sentiment compared to BTC. Bitcoin saw modest inflows to centralized exchanges below $50 million, up from a net outflow of $192 million from the second quarter.
For Ether, over $1 billion of ETH remained on exchanges for the fourth quarter in a row, while outflows in Q3 were $57 million less than in Q2.
3 things to remember in October
Bitcoin price struggled to keep up with the $20,000 psychological support barrier throughout September. Without a good pump from whales and sellers, a significant rally seems like a distant dream.
Key BTC whales holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC continue to dump. Over the past year, these key addresses have dropped 3.5% in supply to addresses that have much less impact on future price movement. Another 0.4% of BTC supply was dumped in September alone. In October, a key trend to watch out for is potential whale aggregations.
The amount of unique BTC moving from address to address remains scarce, leading the NVT signal to be bearish for the second month in a row. A rise in the same could turn out to be a bullish indicator.
A look at BTC funding rates showed another worrying trend, with traders gradually becoming more eager when the price doesn't drop. After the longs climb high enough, there will be another dump, traders will try to short temporarily and then give up and go long again.
So monitoring the above key indicators could be key. A reversal in these on-chain metrics could represent a bullish turn for BTC, ETH and the larger market.
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